Methodology & Sources
Global Threat Tracker brings together information on conflict and security, disease outbreaks, world power, climate and disasters, food insecurity, and cyber activity. Open the research workspace and choose a system. A lens is a focused view of a particular conflict, outbreak, region, or topic within that system.
Product scope
Conflict lenses organize lens-specific questions and mapped sources. Disease pages present dated public-health reports and visible data gaps. World Power Balance keeps its 2024 comparison, newer signals, selected assumptions, and modeled results separate.
Only StraitWatch, the dedicated Strait of Hormuz lens, uses the Hormuz simulator. The other research areas, from conflict lenses and disease pages to World Power Balance, climate, food, and cyber, do not inherit its inputs or outputs.
What the labels mean
- DATA: a dated published observation or source-linked report. Publication is evidence that a claim was made, not independent confirmation that every claim is correct.
- MODEL: a value calculated from the displayed scenario inputs and documented formulas. It is conditional output, not a forecast.
- JUDGMENT: an analyst-selected weight, threshold, scenario definition, or other assumption that a reader should be able to inspect and challenge.
Source families
Each source is scoped to the system or lens it supports. A listed source may be mapped for research rather than connected as a live feed, and a published record does not independently verify every underlying claim.
Limits to keep in view
- Public reporting may be incomplete, delayed, revised, duplicated, or wrong.
- Automated headline analysis can interpret wording but does not verify a claim, read every full article, or establish a publisher's reliability.
- Scenario weights, elasticities, thresholds, and coupling coefficients are assumptions and may be wrong.
- An unexpected event may invalidate the model structure rather than merely move an input.
- Maps and route geometry are illustrative and must not be used for navigation, emergency response, or personal-safety decisions.
Inspect or challenge the work
Open the research workspace. Review the sources, dates, coverage notes, assumptions, and limits shown for the selected research system. For a correction, send the page or panel and your strongest supporting source. admin@strait-watch.com.
The service uses public or properly attributed sources, does not access private or unauthorized data, and is not affiliated with a government, political party, campaign, brokerage, investment adviser, or news organization.